India’s GDP expected to beat expectations, analysts say
India’s GDP is predicted to hit 6.4% for the current fiscal year, up from the previously forecast figure of 6%, according to the latest S&P Global Ratings.
However, the US-based rating agency has reduced its growth forecast for the next fiscal year (2024-25) to 6.4%.
S&P said: “We have revised up our projection for India’s GDP growth for fiscal 2024 (ending in March 2024) to 6.4%, from 6%, as robust domestic momentum seems to have offset headwinds from high food inflation and weak exports.
“Still, we expect growth to slow in the second half of the fiscal year amid subdued global growth, a higher base, and the lagged impact of rate hikes. As a result, we have lowered our outlook for growth in fiscal 2025 to 6.4%, from 6.9%.”
The Indian economy expanded by 7.2% in the fiscal year 2022-23, which ended in March 2023. In the April-June quarter of this year, India’s GDP grew by 7.8%.
According to S&P’s Economic Outlook for Asia Pacific, growth this year and next will be strongest in developing market economies with strong domestic demand, including India, Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines.
According to the report, fixed investment in India has rebounded significantly faster than private consumer expenditure.
Food inflation in India rose in the July-September quarter, with the headline inflation rate remaining over the RBI’s goal of 4%, implying that the rate cycle will take some time to reverse, according to S&P.
“In Australia, India and the Philippines, lingering inflation risks are keeping central banks occupied. The government plans to expand fiscal policies in several countries could complicate central banks’ policymaking,” S&P said.
Government cracks down on scam websites
India has launched a comprehensive crack down to ban on investment scam websites, shutting down more than 100 sites operated from China.
A report by News18 said the Indian Ministry of Home Affairs has formally communicated with the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology to enforce the blocking of these websites, many of which look like they were set up and hosted in India. More sites are likely to be added to the ban list in the coming weeks, it said.
“These websites were found to be intricately linked to multiple bank accounts, with funds being transferred between accounts to confound investigating agencies. The money, in turn, was converted into cryptocurrency to further obfuscate the trail,” the report said.
Concerns about such scams affecting the country’s financial system were raised by various state authorities, prompting the government to take action.
News18 reported that Hyderabad Police had uncovered one of the largest scams, where a Chinese-operated scheme generated in the region of Rs 7,120,000,000 (£68,000).
Victims were enticed through the Telegram app with promises of lucrative part-time jobs. A complainant informed the Hyderabad Cyber Crime Police that he fell victim to a ‘Rate and Review’ job posted on Telegram.
Initially, victims are persuaded to invest small amounts of money and complete assignments for profits. Gradually, they are encouraged to make bigger and bigger investments, with the promise of substantial returns, ultimately falling prey to the scam.
These fraudulent activities increasingly exploit instant messaging platforms like WhatsApp and Telegram for their operations.
CloudSEK, a cybersecurity company, recently revealed in an investigation that scammers are successfully evading detection by law enforcement agencies with the assistance of Chinese payment gateways and Indian money mules.
“A notable trend we’ve observed is scammers exploiting Chinese payment gateways due to their relative ease of use and limited regulatory scrutiny,” said Sparsh Kulshrestha, a senior security analyst. “These gateways offer a convenient bridge to funnel funds outside India, leveraging sophisticated techniques that blur jurisdictional lines, making it challenging to track and intercept the money trail.”
In recent years, the Government of India has taken action against some 250 Chinese apps, citing concerns related to the sovereignty, integrity, defence, security and public order.
